A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
